2025 Holiday Outlook: Trade Uncertainty Drives Value-Based Shopping
why it matters
Tariffs and trade uncertainty are back on the consumer’s mind. Prices feel higher. Choice feels tighter. Our U.S. Shopper Spotlight, fielded August 18–22, 2025 with 1,000 census-balanced adults, shows a clear shift toward value-driven shopping ahead of the holidays. Brands that connect pricing, promotions, and portfolio decisions to real demand signals will be ready to protect growth when sentiment wobbles.
American shoppers are entering the 2025 holiday season with caution, focusing more on need, value, and timing than ever before.
Nearly half of Americans (45%) worry global trade issues could limit their ability to find the products they want this holiday season.
Consumers believe that trade restrictions and tariffs will affect holiday spending prices.
- 32%
Plan to cut back holiday spending due to tariffs or trade restrictions.
- 31%
Will trade down to lower-cost brands.
- 75%
Say they’re buying more on need than want.
- 55%
Usually wait for sales before buying.
- 42%
Would still choose a more expensive item if it delivers better quality or durability.
- 33%
Of consumers seem to choose lower-cost brands as opposed to popular, more expensive brands.
Imported goods and tariff perceptions
Half of the survey respondents (50%) believe tariffs are driving recent price hikes, especially in everyday categories like electronics, food, and automotive. Electronics top the list of categories where Americans have noticed price increases.
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- 26%
Of consumers will buy fewer imported goods.
- 43%
Of consumers say it will depend on the price gap.
- 27%
Of consumers would still buy imported goods even if tariffs make the goods more expensive.
- 25%
Of consumers would still buy imported goods, even if tariff prices make these goods more expensive.
What this means for brands
and retailers
Detect when and where trade concerns change conversion, basket mix, and channel preference.
